- S&P fut: 7,546 (0.00%)
- Nasdaq fut: 29,253 (-0.22%)
- Dow fut: 52,655 (0.40%)
- VIX: 17.12 (0.41%)
- 10Y: 4.64% (0.30%)
- Dollar: 101.08 (-0.10%)
- Fear & Greed: 44 · fear
- BTC: $65,964 (-1.23%)
- XRP: $1.14 (0.22%)
- ETH: $1,941 (0.25%)
- 30Y mortgage: 6.55%
TL;DR
3- Iran conflict is escalating fast: Trump vows to destroy an Iranian bridge or power plant for every Strait of Hormuz attack, and the Pentagon has now confirmed a 3rd US service member killed.
- The tape: futures are split — Dow up, Nasdaq soft, VIX a moderate 17 — as oil-driven inflation risk shadows an otherwise calm morning.
- Watch today: Alphabet and Tesla report after the close — the first mega-cap earnings read since oil spiked toward $95 a barrel.
Number of the Day
- $95 — the price a barrel of oil jumped to as the Iran conflict squeezes global supply, per this morning's WSJ market wrap. That's the level markets watch for real inflation pass-through — pricier fuel means pricier everything else, right as the Fed sits in its pre-FOMC blackout period with no room to react.
Top 10 Stories Right Now
10- 1
US and Saudi Arabia reach a deal on nuclear fuel enrichment. Washington and Riyadh struck an agreement that could let the Saudis enrich their own nuclear fuel, a major shift in decades of US nonproliferation policy in the region. It comes amid broader Middle East turmoil tied to the Iran conflict. Expect scrutiny over proliferation risk. link
- 2
Trump-backed 2020 election deniers sweep Arizona primaries. Candidates who've echoed false 2020 election-fraud claims won their races in a swing state that's been a national bellwether. It signals the GOP base's continued alignment with Trump's election narrative heading into the midterms. link
- 3
Trump threatens to destroy Iranian infrastructure for each Hormuz attack. He said the US will hit a bridge or power plant in Iran for every attack in the Strait of Hormuz, a major chokepoint for global oil shipping. The threat raises the stakes on an already 11-night bombing campaign. link
- 4
Pentagon confirms a 3rd US service member likely killed in Iranian retaliation. The death toll from Iran's counterstrikes continues to climb as the campaign grinds on. Families and lawmakers are pressing for clarity on rules of engagement. link
- 5
Tropical Storm Bertha crawls along the Gulf Coast. Forecasters expect limited damage, but the storm is still disrupting travel and coastal communities as it moves through. link
- 6
Trump announces 50% tariffs on Canada. The new levies would hit a broad swath of Canadian imports and are expected to raise prices for US consumers on everything from lumber to groceries. It's a sharp escalation with a longtime trade partner. link
- 7
Zelenskyy fires his military chief after protests. The move follows public unrest and comes amid mounting pressure over the war's trajectory. It's a significant shakeup at the top of Ukraine's armed forces. link
- 8
Rubio: Iran "not serious" about talks as strikes hit their 11th night. The Secretary of State's blunt assessment suggests diplomacy is stalled while the bombing campaign continues. link
- 9
Wildfire prompts mass evacuation order near Pleasanton. Thousands are being ordered out as flames threaten homes; the fire is the latest sign of an intensifying Western fire season. link
- 10
France bans social media for under-15s. Lawmakers approved a sweeping restriction aimed at protecting kids online, one of the most aggressive moves yet in Europe's push to regulate youth tech use. Expect other EU countries to watch closely. link
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Upcoming Big Events
7- This week — House GOP races to pass stopgap funding and budget reconciliation before the August recess, including a separate vote on restricting congressional stock trading.
- This week — Senate CLARITY Act (crypto market-structure bill) vote odds jumped to 72% ahead of an August deadline; the daylight-saving-time bill also awaits a Senate vote after House passage.
- Wed, Jul 22 — The Supreme Court's ruling blocking thousands of lawsuits against Roundup's maker just landed, a major liability shield for the herbicide maker.
- Thu, Jul 23 — Weekly jobless claims (consensus 211K vs. 208K prior) and EIA crude oil inventories (consensus -2.0M) — a check on labor resilience and how tightly the Iran conflict is squeezing supply.
- Fri, Jul 24 — Natural gas storage and the KC Fed manufacturing index round out this week's data.
- Ongoing — The Fed remains in its blackout period ahead of the next FOMC meeting; no policy signals expected until then.
- Tue, Jul 28 — Durable goods orders and the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow update give an early look at Q3 momentum.
Pre-Market Pulse
6- S&P futures (ES): 7,546.00 ↔ +0.00%
- Nasdaq futures (NQ): 29,252.50 ↓ -0.22%
- Dow futures (YM): 52,655.00 ↑ +0.40%
- VIX: 17.12 ↑ +0.41% (moderate, not yet elevated)
- 10Y yield: 4.64% ↑ +0.30%
- DXY: 101.08 ↓ -0.10% Futures are split — Dow firm, Nasdaq soft — as rising oil and yields temper an otherwise steady mood into the open.
Fear & Greed
44 · fear
Today's Economic Calendar
3- ADP Employment Change (Weekly): 16.50K, down from 19.25K prior — hiring momentum cooling.
- Redbook: 7.8% vs. 8.2% prior — retail sales growth easing slightly.
- API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: +2.603M vs. consensus of -1.500M — a surprise build against a backdrop of war-driven supply fears.
Earnings Today
4- GOOG/GOOGL (AH, $4.26T cap) — consensus EPS $2.87 vs. $2.31 a year ago; the AI-spend bellwether for the whole tech tape.
- TSLA (AH, $1.39T cap) — consensus EPS $0.31 vs. $0.27 last year.
- TXN (AH, $258.5B cap) — consensus EPS $1.91 vs. $1.41, a read on chip demand.
- T (pre-market, $152.5B cap) — consensus EPS $0.59 vs. $0
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Assembled automatically from public sources — every headline links to its origin. Nothing here is investment advice.