Topic

Markets

Rates, equities, credit, and the gap between what markets price and what the data shows.

Trending keywords

rate cutsfutures pricingyield curveearnings breadth

From the most recently refreshed Markets briefing.

Implied cuts by Dec

2.8

+0.4 vs Apr

Data-consistent cuts

1.9

−0.1 vs Apr

CPI categories >3%

41%

−7pp YTD

Pricing gap

0.9 cuts

widest since Jan

Futures markets are pricing three cuts by year-end. Inflation breadth and labor data support, at most, two — and the gap is widening.