Topic

Economic Signals

Alternative and leading indicators that move before the official statistics do.

Trending keywords

freight ratesleading indicatorsdiffusion index

From the most recently refreshed Economic Signals briefing.

Spot composite

+12%

since Feb low

Lead vs goods CPI

~5 mo

correlation peak

Goods CPI weight

37%

of headline

Implied stall

Q3 2026

goods disinflation

Container and trucking spot rates lead goods inflation by four to six months. They turned up in March. The CPI conversation hasn't caught up.