Tuesday, August 25, 2026

• China is warning Washington of retaliation over Iran sanctions just as U.S.-Canada trade talks collapse into an all-out tariff fight — geopolitics is fraying on multiple fronts at once.
• Futures are green across the board (S&P +0.45%, Nasdaq +0.94%) but VIX is up over 4% — traders are buying the dip while hedging it too, all eyes on Nvidia earnings.
• Watch today's Chicago Fed National Activity print (came in at -0.08, a soft read) and tomorrow's Core PCE — the data is quietly doing the talking while the Fed stays silent ahead of Jackson Hole.

• 2,612,358 — that's the trade count on NVDA options and shares today, the single most-active name on the tape. It's the market voting with its feet ahead of tonight's earnings, and it's happening while Nvidia's own valuation is being called "surprisingly cheap" heading into the print — a setup where a lot of money has already made up its mind before the numbers even land.

1. 1

   China threatens payback over U.S. Iran sanctions — Beijing is warning Washington it could retaliate if the U.S. presses ahead with sanctions tied to Iran, raising the stakes on an already tense economic relationship. The warning lands amid a broader stretch of U.S. actions abroad drawing pushback from major powers. Reaction from Beijing has been sharply worded, signaling this isn't just posturing. (FT)

2. 2

   U.S.-Canada trade talks collapse into a full tariff war — What started as "Fortress North America" cooperation talk has unraveled into an escalating trade dispute between the two neighbors. The breakdown reportedly followed months of friction over tariff demands and retaliatory threats. It's rattled businesses on both sides of the border who'd counted on a resolution. (NYT)

3. 3

   Supreme Court clears path for tighter mail-in ballot rules — The Court's ruling gives the Trump administration more room to impose sweeping limits on mail-in voting ahead of upcoming elections. Voting-rights advocates say it could complicate access for millions of voters. The decision is already fueling debate over election integrity versus access. (WaPo)

4. 4

   Trump's endorsement power gets tested in Tuesday runoffs — Several primary runoffs today will show whether Trump's backing still moves the needle in GOP contests. It's being watched as an early signal for midterm dynamics. Party insiders are split on how predictive today's results will be. (NBC News)

5. 5

   DHS plans to revoke visas of 200,000 asylum seekers — The administration is preparing to pull B1/B2 visas from roughly 200,000 asylum applicants as part of a broader immigration crackdown. Immigration attorneys warn it could upend lives already in legal limbo. Advocacy groups are calling it unprecedented in scale. (Al Jazeera)

6. 6

   U.S. plans to send diplomats back to Middle East embassies — The administration is moving to restore diplomatic staffing across several Middle East posts, a shift from a more pared-back regional presence. It signals an attempt to re-engage diplomatically after a tense stretch. Regional allies are watching closely for what it means for broader policy. (NYT)

7. 7

   Germany finds a third drone at an airport, Merz vows a reckoning — German officials discovered a third drone tied to a string of hybrid attacks, prompting Chancellor Merz to promise those responsible "will pay." It's the latest in a pattern of suspected sabotage-style incidents rattling European infrastructure. Officials are treating it as a serious security escalation, not a one-off. (Euronews)

8. 8

   Paramount's Ellison stalls at the final hurdle on WBD — David Ellison is reportedly close to buying Warner Bros. Discovery but hasn't cleared the last obstacle in the deal. It caps months of speculation about consolidation in Hollywood. Investors are parsing every signal for whether this finally closes. (CNBC)

9. 9

   Nvidia's valuation looks "surprisingly cheap" going into earnings — Analysts are flagging that Nvidia trades at a lower multiple than expected right before a major earnings report, raising the question of whether that's a buying signal or a warning. It's the most-watched print of the week for the entire AI trade. Sentiment is split between "it's cheap for a reason" and "it's cheap because it's Nvidia." (Yahoo Finance)

10. 10

    U.S. futures rise ahead of Nvidia and inflation data — Stock futures ticked higher across the board as investors position for both Nvidia's earnings and fresh inflation readings this week. It's shaping up as a pivotal 48 hours for market direction. The mood is cautiously optimistic but far from complacent. (Investing.com)

• Aug 26 — Building Permits and House Price Index due; a read on whether housing is stabilizing amid a still-elevated mortgage rate.
• Aug 27 — Core Durable Goods Orders and Core PCE Price Index (consensus 0.2% m/m, 3.3% y/y) — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, closely watched into Jackson Hole.
• Aug 28-30 — Jackson Hole Symposium — the Fed's biggest annual venue for signaling next policy moves, with Governor Warsh speaking Aug 29.
• Aug 28 — Initial Jobless Claims (consensus 208K) and Goods Trade Balance — labor-market health check.
• Aug 29 — Michigan Consumer Sentiment and inflation-expectations survey — a gauge of how worried households are about prices.
• Sept 15 — Senate scheduled to vote on the CLARITY Act, the crypto market-structure bill, at 2 p.m. — seen as pivotal for how digital assets get regulated going forward.

• S&P futures (ES): 🟢 +0.45%
• Nasdaq futures (NQ): 🟢 +0.94%
• Dow futures (YM): 🟢 +0.52%
• VIX: 🔴 15.75 (+4.10%) — creeping up but still shy of "elevated"
• 10Y Treasury yield: 🟢 4.704% (down slightly from 4.738)
• Dollar Index (DXY): 🟢 99.01 (flat) Futures are grinding higher into a big earnings night, with just enough VIX wobble to suggest hedging, not conviction.

• 8:30am — Chicago Fed National Activity Index: came in at -0.08 (previous 0.06) — a soft read on national growth.
• 11:30am — 3-Month and 6-Month Bill Auctions: yields steady around 3.72%/3.79%.

• INTU (Intuit, $100.4B) — AH, consensus EPS $2.12 vs $1.70 last year; a bellwether for small-business and tax-software spending.
• BMO / BNS (Bank of Montreal, Bank of Nova Scotia) — pre-market, both expected to post solid y/y EPS growth ($2.71 and $1.53).
• DKS (Dick's Sporting Goods, $16.4B) — pre-market, consensus $3.78 vs $4.38 last year, a read on discretionary retail spending.
• ZM (Zoom, $31.5B) — AH, consensus $1.01 vs $0.99, watched for enterprise software demand signals.

• DAIC $1.73 (+306.1%) — no catalyst in today's data.
• DAICW $0.0096 (+380%) — warrants tracking DAIC's move, no catalyst in today's data.
• GIPR $0.7525 (+150.67%) — no catalyst in today's data.
• FLZH $0.2211 (-77.2%) — no catalyst in today's data.
• FBDT $2.05 (-48.62%) — no catalyst in today's data.
• NVDA — most-active name on the tape (2.6M+ trades) ahead of tonight's earnings; underlying at $208.47, down from $214.74.
• INTC — heavy volume (896K+ trades), shares off ~3% to $87.25 amid active options positioning.
• BITO — bitcoin-tracking ETF up modestly, riding crypto's overnight strength.

• AMZN options: calls outrunning puts 273K-to-126K (put/call 0.46); the Aug 26 $252.50 call saw 34.5x its open interest in volume.
• AAPL options: calls dominant at nearly 3-to-1 over puts, with the Aug 26 $315 call trading 40K contracts against just 5,714 open interest.
• DPC insider cluster: 9 insiders added 2.3M shares at $33, a +410% jump in ownership — a striking vote of confidence.
• BRVE insider cluster: 6 insiders bought $89M worth at $18/share in early August. Congress trading data: nothing notable logged today.

• BTC: $79,155 🟢 +1.03%
• XRP: $1.48 🔴 -0.85%
• ETH: $2,478.88 🔴 -0.55% Bitcoin's holding its ground while the altcoins lag — a fairly typical "risk stays in the majors" morning.

• 30-year fixed mortgage rate: 6.65% (as of Aug 20), holding roughly steady after recent choppiness.
• 64 major housing markets now have falling home prices, per a new roundup — a sign the correction is broadening beyond a handful of pandemic-boomtowns. (Fast Company)
• Iowa's housing market showed an upward July trend, a bright spot against the national picture. (Corridor Business Journal)

r/Baking

Made myself a birthday cake for the 4th year in a row

YouTube

ESPN FIRST TAKE LIVE 08/25/2026 | GET UP LIVE | Stephen A. Smith & Cam Newton debate Sports

r/MadeMeSmile

My wife makes me so happy

YouTube

LIVE: NBC News NOW - Aug. 25

r/cats

A construction crew in Barberton, Ohio, rescued an abandoned kitten on the worksite. And he joined the team.

YouTube

The BOB AND TOM SHOW - August 25, 2026

• Reddit
• r/Baking — someone made themselves a birthday cake for the fourth year running post
• r/MadeMeSmile — a simple "my wife makes me so happy" post is warming hearts post
• r/cats — a construction crew in Barberton, Ohio rescued a kitten and adopted it as their mascot post
• r/KidsAreFuckingStupid — a "shocking discovery" post has the sub cracking up post
• r/mildlyinteresting — a library vending machine dispensing free Narcan, fentanyl test strips, and toiletries is sparking discussion post
• YouTube
• Chiến An Giang — First Take Live sports debate on Stephen A. Smith & Cam Newton (2,024 views) watch
• NBC News — live morning news coverage (2,850 views) watch
• The BOB & TOM Show — daily radio broadcast (3,202 views) watch
• Julie Green Ministries — live ministry stream (1,676 views) watch
• ABC News — live morning news coverage (1,774 views) watch
• Instagram
• A glowing light-up USB cable is going viral as a Halloween decoration hack story
• A "does pomegranate fight cancer" fact-check is circulating widely story
• A viral car-kissing prank video ended with cops showing up story
• A BJP video using a Pakistani song is being called "anti-national" in India story
• Dubai's 5kg cheesy burger is the latest food stunt going viral story
• X
• Canada (live) — trade-war fallout from the U.S.-Canada breakdown
• WNBA (live)
• Enes (live)
• Browns (live)
• Good Tuesday (live)
• Google Trends
• alex pretti (1000+) — family speaks out in an emotional interview story
• gen z years (200+) — a Google veteran's advice to Gen Z on AI skepticism story
• national park (200+) — Zion shuttle service suspended after a rockfall story
• trump doj executive privilege memo (200+) — new debate over presidential accountability story
• fromm and oma's pride recall (200+) — dog food recalled across the US and Canada over metal contamination story
• A photo album with today's Reddit and YouTube images lands right after this brief.

• John Cusack backs Mark Ruffalo amid antisemitism accusations — Cusack voiced solidarity after Paramount accused Ruffalo of antisemitic remarks, which he denies; the dispute is dividing Hollywood reaction online. (Yahoo)
• Tina Campbell's divorce filing reveals her monthly income — The gospel singer's contentious divorce case has spilled into financial disclosures now being widely discussed. (TMZ)
• Jelly Roll celebrates a 300-pound weight loss on Kimmel — He opened up about the transformation on late night, drawing an outpouring of supportive reaction. (NYT)
• Ridley Scott's "The Dog Stars" draws first reactions — Early critic responses are trickling out on Scott's latest, giving a first read on how it's landing. (THR)
• "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" set to knock "Titanic" out of all-time top 5 — The film's box office run is on track to surpass one of Hollywood's most iconic benchmarks. (THR)

• "Training AI to Paint with Code" — a project teaching a Qwen model to generate images by writing and executing code (reinforcement-learning approach to visual generation) rather than pure pixel diffusion. (HN)
• MS Paint and Windows Photos are quietly baking invisible GUID watermarks into locally generated images — even offline, with no cloud round-trip. (HN)
• "Headlong," a minimal microharness for running persistent AI agents, is drawing attention for its lightweight approach to long-running agent tasks. (HN)

• "Ideal Glass State" — a genuine breakthrough in condensed-matter physics. Researchers describe achieving a theoretically ideal glassy state of matter, a longstanding open problem in the field with implications for understanding disordered materials broadly. (Scientific Frontline)

• "The Children a Scientist Took Home" — a deep, unsettling look back at scientist Carleton Gajdusek and the children he brought into his home, raising hard questions about science, power, and abuse. Worth the sit-down for how carefully it handles a genuinely difficult story. (read)

• In 2012, Voyager 1 became the first human-made object to enter interstellar space — after 35 years of travel, still transmitting.

• Max Muncy (turns 36) — Dodgers infielder known for clutch postseason power. China Anne McClain (turns 28) — actress and singer known for Disney Channel roles. Caris LeVert (turns 32) — NBA guard/forward.

• Spicy Arrabiata Penne (Italian, vegetarian) — penne, garlic, chopped tomatoes, and red chilli flakes come together fast for a weeknight dinner with real kick. recipe

• Tonight, instead of reading to your kid, hand them the book and ask them to read you one page and describe the pictures in their own words. Flipping the roles builds reading confidence in a way passive listening never does. Works well for ages 4-9.

The theme for "Doctor Who" was composed by who?

• Tell them: "Conjunctivitis.com — now that's a site for sore eyes." If it earns even a groan, that's the whole point of a Tuesday-morning joke — no follow-up required, just a shared laugh before the day gets busy.